On 23 August, registered voters in Zimbabwe will decide which parties fill the 210 seats in the National Assembly and the 60 seats in the Senate, and who will be the next president. But it is doubtful that the outcome of the vote will change anything.

BY HENNING MELBER, Associate of The Nordic Africa Institute

The mood among the electorate is sober. The country is going “in the wrong direction” External link, opens in new window., according to seven out of ten Zimbabweans surveyed by Afrobarometer, not least due to bad governance and the devastating economic and fiscal track record. External link, opens in new window.

Zimbabwe has a dismal election history External link, opens in new window.: “the national political culture… has traditionally been averse to free and fair electoral contestation. Hinging on intolerance, violence and rigging, it is poised to go to extremes to maintain the status quo and keep the incumbent government in power.”

According to analysis External link, opens in new window. by the Institute for Security Studies: “Current conditions don’t conform with the Southern African Development Community’s election guidelines, nor do they provide an even electoral playing field.” One third of Zimbabweans cannot vote External link, opens in new window., according to estimates, because they live abroad for economic and political reasons. Regular election violence External link, opens in new window. has been an instrument of coercion since independence.

As in 2018, the main competitors in the presidential race are the incumbent, President Emmerson Mnangagwa of the ruling Zimbabwe African National Union-Patriotic Front (ZANU-PF), and Nelson Chamisa, leader of the Citizens Coalition for Change (rebranded from the Movement for Democratic Change).

The election in 2018 of Mnangagwa – who was installed as president in late 2017 with the backing of securocrats, the military and ZANU-PF following a soft coup against Robert Mugabe – was marred by irregularities.

Mugabe’s legacy External link, opens in new window., despite hopes for progress towards less violence and greater unity, has simply been more of the same. The 2018 election results, announced after considerable delay, did not meet international standards External link, opens in new window..

Research suggests External link, opens in new window., “with a huge funding base, abuse of public resources and massive vote buying, materially, Zimbabwe's 2018 elections were heavily slanted in favour of ZANU-PF.” Protests ended in massive and brutal state violence External link, opens in new window..

Little has changed since then. Accused of manipulating election results External link, opens in new window., the Zimbabwe Electoral Commission continues to feed concerns that it is anything but impartial External link, opens in new window.. The chaotic electoral registry displays serious flaws. The same can be said of the judicial system and legislation.

A Human Rights Watch report External link, opens in new window. concludes with a summary statement External link, opens in new window.: “authorities have weaponized the criminal justice system against the ruling party’s opponents”. The judicial system External link, opens in new window. has been transformed since the turn of the century from the rule of law into the law of the rulers – abused as rule by law rather than rule of law External link, opens in new window.. The Maintenance of Peace and Order Act External link, opens in new window. has since 2019 made it impossible for any party other than ZANU-PF to campaign freely.

As if that were not enough, Parliament approved the so-called “Patriotic Bill” in late May. The president signed the bill into law External link, opens in new window. on 14 July. It criminalises “wilfully injuring the sovereignty and national interest of Zimbabwe”. Such deliberate vagueness could allow the punishment of those who express dissenting views with harsh prison sentences – in some cases, even the death penalty External link, opens in new window.. 

Fears of further repression External link, opens in new window., and that this new law will be instrumental in keeping any meaningful opposition under control, do not seem far-fetched. Most Zimbabweans welcome elections External link, opens in new window., but only a minority consider them free and fair, given such obvious limitations to a democratic choice at the ballot box.

Testifying to a preference for democratic pluralism, most Zimbabweans want free media as a watchdog. But more than half rate news media in Zimbabwe as “not very free” or “not at all free’’ External link, opens in new window..

Limitations on freedom of expression External link, opens in new window. and harassment of journalists, civil society agencies and social activists are the result of more than two decades in an increasingly repressive authoritarian state.

Civil society is alive and kicking External link, opens in new window., against all the odds. Evidence of this is the recent publication of Animal Farm translated into Shona External link, opens in new window.. Numerous courageous – predominantly female – novelists have achieved international recognition External link, opens in new window.. Their openly critical engagement with harsh socioeconomic realities is renowned.

The Private Voluntary Organisations Amendment Bill External link, opens in new window., however, once signed into law by President Mnangagwa, will further restrict activities considered opposed to the government External link, opens in new window..

ZANU-PF holds tight control of rural areas, while the opposition has its strongholds in urban centres. While surveys and observers alike suggest that the election race is neck and neck, it does not take a talent for prophecy to predict that the deeply entrenched urban-rural divide will manifest itself once again.

The main concern is that another wave of protest and violence will cost the lives of people who reject the official election results. The signing of a “Peace Pact” External link, opens in new window. between the main political parties on 4 August is welcome, but as the old adage has it, seeing is believing.

Hope that citizens External link, opens in new window. “use their votes in the upcoming elections in August to choose a new government that would uphold their rights and human dignity”, therefore, might turn out to be wishful thinking – but hope dies last.