Zambia's general election on 13 August will test whether the government's economic recovery is enough to secure another term for President Hakainde Hichilema and his ruling UPND Alliance. Despite successfully restructuring the country's debt and attracting major mining investments, many Zambians have yet to see tangible improvements in their daily lives, raising questions over public services and whether growth is reaching beyond the mining sector.

When President Hakainde Hichilema came to power in 2021, Zambia was recovering from a sovereign debt default, with high inflation and falling investor confidence. Five years later, the picture looks very different. The country has completed debt restructuring under the G20 Common Framework, its credit rating has been upgraded, inflation has fallen to single digits and the economy is expected to grow by more than six percent. Investment in the mining sector has also gathered pace.

But despite an impressive economic turnaround, poverty levels remain high, particularly in rural areas and wealth inequality has increased. Many Zambians continue to struggle with high living costs and power outages, driven by elevated food prices and hydro-electricity shortages linked to the 2024-2025 drought, as well as a lack of jobs outside of mining.

Public services under scrutiny

While some polls have shown Hichilema leading, the election outcome is far from certain, despite a highly fragmented opposition with 14 presidential hopefuls. Voters’ perceptions of his track record will be shaped by their everyday experiences and whether they feel their lives have improved during his term in office, explains NAI Senior Researcher Patience Mususa, who researches social inequality and natural resource governance in Zambia.

“The key criticism has been that the current administration has been outwardly focused – dealing with the debt and inward investment in mining – without adequately addressing the core concerns of citizens, particularly around public accountability. They will be judged on what they do domestically – that’s their biggest challenge,” she says.

“They were expected to tackle systemic corruption in public services, a major issue in the previous administration – particularly how money is spent in the health and education sectors. People wanted this done speedily. It affects their daily lives when they cannot access medicines and so on.”

The government has delivered on a popular election promise by abolishing school fees and reintroducing school feeding programmes. These reforms have brought millions more children into school. However, the relatively late rollout of school meals in much of the country could lead voters to see it as vote-seeking, says Mususa.

Another key reform has been the expansion of the Constituency Development Fund – from K1.6 million in 2021 to K40 million (US$ 2.17 million) per constituency in 2026 – giving communities greater control over spending on local infrastructure, schools and healthcare.

“The government has really scored on this,” says Bridget Bwalya, Associate Professor at the University of Zambia’s School of Natural and Applied Sciences, who researches smallholder agriculture, food systems and climate resilience in Zambia. “Most people really like it.”

Copper and the campaign

The mining sector has long shaped Zambia's electoral politics, particularly in Copperbelt Province, where communities increasingly expect mineral wealth to translate into visible improvements in jobs, infrastructure and public services – rather than primarily benefiting investors through tax incentives and other concessions, explains Mususa.

"You do not win an election unless you win over the mining communities," she says.

Zambia is Africa’s largest copper producer after the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) and mining is the cornerstone of the government's economic recovery strategy, including plans to triple annual copper production to three million tonnes by 2031.

Interest from the United States, European Union and China has reinforced the country’s strategic importance in the global energy transition, alongside infrastructure projects such as the Lobito Corridor and the Tanzania-Zambia Railway connecting critical minerals to global markets.

Responding to long-standing pressure from mining communities, the government has introduced local content rules aimed at increasing procurement from Zambian companies and expanding local participation in the mining sector.

"There's been a lot of criticism about the state being too market-friendly and not leveraging its position on mineral revenues," says Mususa, adding that the government has been increasing the public sector stake in mines.

Alongside investments in mining, the government has also sought to position the country higher up global critical mineral value chains through local processing and manufacturing. Together with neighbouring Democratic Republic of Congo, Zambia has signed agreements with foreign investors to develop a regional battery value chain for electric vehicles.

"They have been very clear that they want inward investment in downstream areas and in other sectors such as agricultural value chains and pharmaceuticals," says Mususa, pointing to foreign investments in copper processing, fertiliser production and building materials.

Who benefits from growth?

Nonetheless, mining has remained the dominant sector for foreign direct investments, according to UN trade organisation UNCTAD. And whether this can generate broader employment opportunities and improve livelihoods beyond the sector is likely to be one of the defining questions of the election.

However, heavy domestic borrowing to finance public deficit makes diversification difficult as it drives up interest rates, says NAI Senior Researcher Jörgen Levin, who researches macroeconomic developments across Africa. For Levin, Zambia's challenge is to lower the cost of borrowing for entrepreneurs and farmers, the majority of the population, so that they are able to invest and increase their incomes – particularly in rural areas where poverty remains entrenched.

“Relative poverty has been going down in most Africa countries but not in Zambia. Rural poverty has remained above 75 percent for over 15 years,” explains Levin.

“You do need to diversify the economy with value addition and Zambia can do that with copper. But although it creates a lot of revenue for the government, it does not necessarily benefit the poor in terms of improving incomes. It also only represents about 15 percent of GDP,” he adds.

“The rest of the economy, the other 85 percent, is where most people are working and where you need to expand investments – particularly in agriculture where productivity is extremely low.”

Ultimately, the election may become less a referendum on Zambia's macroeconomic recovery than on whether voters believe they are better off now compared to when President Hichilema took power.

While international partners may point to stronger public finances, increased investment and renewed economic credibility, voters will more likely judge his performance on jobs, public services and the price of food.

Text: Tom Sullivan