Policy advice to guide Nordic support for African-led resilience

The displacement of people in Africa is increasingly shaped by overlapping crises – a polycrisis – where conflict, climate change and economic shocks amplify one another and strain response systems. While humanitarian needs remain urgent, long-term resilience requires stronger institutions, locally led approaches and coordination. Drawing on consultations with 20 experts, this policy note identifies key areas for more effective responses, including how Nordic and international actors can support stronger African leadership and context-sensitive solutions.

Jesper Bjarnesen, NAI, Angela Muvumba Sellström, NAI, and Johannes Tarvainen, UNDP

The scale of internal and cross-border displacement has risen dramatically across Africa over the past decade External link, opens in new window.. This surge can largely be attributed to the intertwined drivers of conflict, fragility, economic shocks and, increasingly, the effects of climate change, with projections pointing to a continuous increase in displacement figures in the coming years and decades.

In 2025, more than 45 million people were estimated External link, opens in new window. to be displaced on the continent, mainly within their own countries, representing approximately 43% of the total number worldwide. Conflict is the primary driver of displacement, with an estimated 96% of displaced people in Africa originating from a country experiencing armed conflict. Five countries – Sudan, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Somalia, Nigeria and Burkina Faso – accounted for half of this figure.

At the same time, people displaced by disasters on the continent have increased by approximately 33% in the last year alone. The effects of climate change put additional pressure on the resilience of communities and on the capacities of authorities in conflict settings.

Uganda and Chad External link, opens in new window. host some of the largest numbers of people displaced across international borders, with estimated refugee populations of 1.8 million and 1.4 million people, respectively. These often protracted or cyclical displacement patterns cause significant impacts on host communities, local planning, service delivery and livelihoods in both rural and urban contexts, including taking into account the gendered impact of displacement.

Displacement in polycrisis

Broader political and economic shocks, such as the global impacts of Covid-19 and conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East, also affect displacement patterns in complex and unpredictable ways across Africa. These changing conditions have resulted in increased pressure points around the economy and on social cohesion. To cite one example, growing food insecurity External link, opens in new window. in countries as diverse as Egypt, the Republic of the Congo, Senegal and Sudan can be attributed to the interaction of various factors including increasingly severe droughts, national shortcomings in managing domestic agriculture, and rising import prices caused by disrupted value chains.

Taken together, such conditions can be understood through the lens of polycrisis, which implies that multiple sources of vulnerability interact to deepen and complicate displacement situations and the scope and relevance of responses. Displacement is thus a consequence of mutually reinforcing vulnerabilities; not only post-conflict challenges but also environmental stressors, poverty and diverse forms of marginalisation.

African governments, regional organisations and other actors increasingly consider large-scale displacement as a developmental challenge that needs to be tackled alongside immediate humanitarian needs. This approach is often referred to as the humanitarian–development–peace nexus.

At the same time, international support for humanitarian action is waning, leading to renewed calls External link, opens in new window. for scaling up support to invest in both immediate relief and long-term resilience. While international funding is becoming increasingly scarce, there is an abundance of legal, strategic and policy frameworks at United Nations (UN), African Union, European Union and regional levels, as illustrated by Figure 1. Many of these frameworks are necessary to ensure policy coherence, which is particularly important and challenging when crafting interventions that cut across traditional policy silos such as peacebuilding, climate change mitigation and adaptation, and humanitarian action. But it is clear from the forest of frameworks and strategies that are already in place that Nordic actors should worry less about formulating new policies, and instead focus their resources and efforts on supporting operationalising and reinforcing existing frameworks. This entails buttressing coordination efforts between different actors and at different levels, and ensuring that as many resources as possible actually reach the people and communities who need them through more efficient implementation.

Key insights from expert consultations

In the remainder of this brief, we summarise key insights from three consultative workshops held in the second half of 2025 with 20 research, policy and practitioner experts working on displacement issues from various perspectives. The workshops examined the interface between climate, conflict and human mobility, with a particular focus on conflict- and climate-induced displacement.

We outline five key insights to guide external actors, including Nordic governments and organisations, in an effort to strengthen the resilience of communities affected by displacement through better coordinated, context-sensitive and locally led responses. These areas are intended to help Nordic actors better target their support to where it can have the greatest impact. For each insight, we highlight practical implications for the engagement of Nordic actors at various levels. These should be seen as entry points for further reflection and elaboration, rather than as exhaustive guidance.

Insight 1: Build agile institutions

Strengthen long-term institutional capacities for governance and socio-economic adaptation to support displacement-sensitive resilience.

Displacement interventions based on quick-fix templates, blueprints or rigid toolkits do not work. Effective responses to polycrisis require dynamic and adaptive strategies that work both within and across countries. The difficulty lies not only in how these different kinds of crises mutually reinforce one another, but also in wear and tear on the state and non-state support systems that have to respond.

A useful approach to handling these challenges would be to focus on strengthening and developing structural and institutional capacities, such as local and community governance mechanisms. For example, Uganda has increasingly integrated its refugee responses into national and local planning, including district development plans External link, opens in new window.. Working with and through subnational authorities and actors, such as district and municipal institutions, as well as community associations or other local initiatives, improves the reach and adaptability of public and private development financing.

This long-term strategic, area-based and adaptable approach will help to support dynamic, sustainable and locally led initiatives. These, in turn, help to feed, sustain, educate and care for communities and their members inclusively, reinforcing their resilience and shock absorption capacities. Such an approach can also contribute to preventing future displacement, or better anticipating and planning for evacuation movements; for instance, when faced with climate shocks. One avenue is to integrate displacement considerations more systematically in disaster risk reduction strategies and multidimensional early warning systems, such as the IGAD Climate Prediction and Applications Centre External link, opens in new window..

Insight 2: Empower local actors

Strengthen and resource local actors, recognising their cross-cutting role in building resilience and sustainability.

A key challenge is the global decline in official development assistance, affecting both humanitarian and development responses. The constrained funding environment particularly affects grassroots actors, weakens continuity, and exacerbates long-standing problems of limited agility and fragmented coordination in displacement crises. Larger humanitarian actors have often developed parallel response structures, undermining local capacities and long-term sustainability.

The most effective and sustainable way to strengthen locally led initiatives is to place ownership, initiative, accountability and planning in the hands of actors closest to displacement-affected communities. Subnational processes have shown promising results in addressing overlapping crises, with local authorities and community associations often playing a critical role when higher-level systems falter. However, their effectiveness depends on sustained, adaptable support and financing to manage both urgent shocks and long-term structural recovery.

The Lake Chad Basin Commission, for example, promotes resilience in the Basin area, which includes Cameroon, Chad, Niger, and Nigeria, through multi-stakeholder efforts. A key initiative is the Governors’ Forum, which brings together various stakeholders to address issues related to displacement and return movements.

Insight 3: Bolster inclusive coordination

Support and strengthen inclusive multi-stakeholder platforms that bring together governments, humanitarian, development and peace actors, and community-led organisations.

While locally anchored solutions should remain central to effective and forward-looking humanitarian responses, most displacement challenges in Africa affect communities and subnational authorities already struggling to meet peoples’ basic needs. Extreme poverty is a significant challenge in Africa, with 45% of the population in sub-Saharan Africa living on less than €2,50 a day External link, opens in new window., and 30 African countries ranked among the 40 poorest countries in the world External link, opens in new window.. Poverty-related compounding factors highlight the need for continued external support even if economic self-reliance is the overall long-term goal.

Faced with real resource constraints, effective collaboration between diverse actors is an essential starting point. Making the most of limited resources from local, national and international sources requires stronger multi-stakeholder coordination. Yet, coordination gaps and duplication remain common, while local communities are often excluded from planning, decision-making and evaluation. Community-based organisations – both among local and displaced populations – frequently lack the resources and influence needed to shape joint responses, despite their proximity to affected communities and their ability to deliver sustainable solutions.

More inclusive multi-stakeholder platforms can help bridge these gaps, foster trust and align resources to address interconnected challenges. Where possible, they should build on existing coordination mechanisms, ensuring affected communities play a direct role in shaping responses. For example, UNHCR’s Refugee Coordination Model External link, opens in new window. brings together governments, UN agencies, non-governmental organisations and local actors in joint structures, helping to clarify roles, reduce duplication, and ensure more inclusive and accountable responses. The same applies to emerging responses and coordination structures following the endorsement of the UN Secretary-General’s Action Agenda on Internal Displacement External link, opens in new window..

Insight 4: Break silos through joint action

Integrate multilevel, multilateral and operationally oriented efforts from the outset to avoid siloed responses

Crisis responses in Africa often follow a sequencing pattern in which international humanitarian actors lead initial responses, while national actors engage more fully only once situations stabilise and external actors withdraw. This sequencing fosters one-size-fits-all responses; and tends to disregard the resilience and engagement of local communities that hold the keys to contextual adaptation and are often the de facto first responders.

The ECOWAS Humanitarian Policy and Peace Fund and the IGAD Support Platform, two sub-regional mechanisms designed to coordinate policy across countries, illustrate the potential of the RECs to lead more integrated responses. However, more generally, implementation, coordination and financing challenges limit regional alignment and agency around displacement, climate risks and local development. Moreover, African states often defer to international actors, reducing their responsiveness.

Stronger alignment from the outset can prevent siloed responses and improve long-term sustainability. Practitioners should integrate joint planning and context analysis across humanitarian, development and peace actors, and routinely clarify division of roles and sequencing of interventions.

Insight 5: Strengthen african ownership

Incentivise stronger engagement by African governments and regional actors, and integrate local perspectives into response strategies.
Most large-scale humanitarian interventions are led by multilateral agencies with the mandates and resources to respond efficiently. While continuing to be essential, this role has often come at the expense of national ownership, bypassing African subregional and continental initiatives.

At the same time, many African governments have historically deferred responsibility for humanitarian action to external actors. Better responses require stronger engagement from national authorities and sub-regional organisations, particularly as many displacement situations cross borders. The African Union’s Humanitarian Agency (AfHA) offers an entry point for Africa-led coordination, but must align with national and sub-regional efforts. Nordic governments and humanitarian actors can help to support these processes by strengthening policy dialogue with African partners and promoting African ownership in multilateral forums.