In a new video, NAI Associate Federico Donelli examines how the ongoing war involving Iran could reshape political and security dynamics in the Red Sea and the Horn of Africa.

Donelli argues that the most significant effects may not stem directly from Iran, but from how the conflict is altering the broader international environment. As Gulf states such as Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates shift their attention towards the war, their engagement in the Horn of Africa may decrease, creating space for other actors to expand their influence.

The video highlights how countries such as Egypt and Turkey could take on a more prominent role in regional conflicts. In Sudan, for example, there are indications that Egypt may support a renewed offensive by the Sudanese Armed Forces in western parts of the country. More broadly,

Donelli warns that the war contributes to a growing normalisation of the use of force and a weakening of international norms, which may embolden local actors across the region.

These dynamics have implications beyond Sudan. The video points to rising tensions between Ethiopia and Eritrea, ongoing political uncertainty in Somalia – including disputes between the federal government and member states – and the fragile power-sharing arrangement in South Sudan. Together, these cases illustrate how a shifting global context can intensify existing crises in the Horn of Africa.

The video concludes by emphasising the risks of an increasingly permissive international environment, where fewer constraints on the use of force could have far-reaching consequences for regional stability as well as the international system.