Researcher: Côte d'Ivoire's Ouattara likely to secure controversial fourth term
A newspaper headline showing (from L to R): Ivorian President and presidential candidate for Rally of Houphouetists for Democracy and Peace (RHDP) Alassane Ouattara, former Ivorian First Lady and presidential candidate for Movement of Capable Generations (MGC) Simone Ehivet Gbagbo, independent presidential candidate Don-Mello Ahoua, presidential candidate for Groupement des partenaires politiques pour la paix (GP-PAIX) Henriette Lagou, and presidential candidate for Democratic Party of Ivory Coast – African Democratic Rally Jean-Louis Billon. Ivory Coast on September 9, 2025 barred two top opposition leaders, ex-president Laurent Gbagbo and former Credit Suisse CEO Tidjane Thiam, from running in the election. Photo: Issouf Sanogo/AFP
In a new interview, NAI Senior Researcher Jesper Bjarnesen discusses the upcoming presidential election in Côte d’Ivoire and the complex political landscape that has emerged in recent years. The build-up to the 25 October election has already been controversial, Bjarnesen says.
“The opposition is criticising the president for running for a fourth consecutive term. This issue was already raised in the previous elections, which led to protests and eventually to the opposition boycotting the elections.”
Furthermore, the two main opposition candidates have been excluded on technical grounds relating to their registration as presidential candidates.
Bjarnesen predicts a fairly easy victory for the incumbent, President Alassane Ouattara, because his remaining challengers are representing relatively small and new political parties. He also thinks there is a significant likelihood of a boycott campaign, especially from the two major opposition parties, which would mirror the dynamics of the elections in 2020.
Bjarnesen is currently working within a project focusing on electoral boycott campaigns External link, opens in new window.. The project is looking quantitatively at boycott campaigns across the world since 1946 and has so far coded 194 cases of electoral boycotts.
“Based on the research we are doing, I would say that many of the key issues that boycott campaigns usually mobilise around are present in Côte d’Ivoire today,” he says.
Côte d’Ivoire has a history of political violence. In 2020, opposition parties encouraged their voters to take to the streets and protest against the candidacy of President Ouattara, which led to confrontations with security forces.
“I do think there is a risk in the upcoming elections of opposition supporters clashing with security forces. There is also fragmentation within the opposition, which means there’s a risk of clashes between factions within the opposition as well,” Bjarnesen says.
Diplomatically, the Nordic region along with the international community, is in something of a dilemma when it comes to dealing with Côte d’Ivoire, according to Bjarnesen.
“On the one hand, there have been significant stability and development gains, especially considering that the country is still emerging from an extended civil war. On the other hand, we see that the incumbent administration is using the state bureaucracy to reinforce its hold on power.”