It seems to be a watershed moment for African countries in 2025, not least South Africa. Confronted with a reconfiguration of global power relations, countries will face some tough decisions about how to position themselves in the emerging new constellation. The freezing of USAID programmes has had fatal consequences External link, opens in new window. in the true sense of the word. US President Donald Trump’s obsession over tariffs and his transactional perspective threaten the African Growth and Opportunity Act External link, opens in new window.. It offers 32 African countries preferential access to the US market. If it is not extended in September, these countries will face serious economic disadvantages. How best to compensate for any such setbacks?

BY HENNING MELBER, ASSOCIATE OF THE NORDIC AFRICA INSTITUTE

South Africa is currently the Trump administration’s main target on the continent. Washington is even considering imposing sanctions External link, opens in new window.. South Africa’s response to the coercive policy could be a litmus test for how to respond to the global realignment.

As the first African host country of the G20 Summit in November 2025, South Africa has provoked the US government’s anger (again) by selecting the theme “Solidarity, Equality, Sustainability”. External link, opens in new window. US Foreign Secretary Marco Rubio reacted bluntly on X External link, opens in new window.: “My job is to advance America’s national interests, not waste taxpayer money or coddle anti-Americanism.” At the G20 foreign ministers meeting in Johannesburg on 21-22 February, the US was represented by the local embassy’s chargé d’affaires. In contrast, most other members of the G20 showed a demonstrative presence at the highest level (including the Russian and Chinese foreign ministers). EU foreign minister Kaja Kallas declared categorically External link, opens in new window.: “Given the turbulent times that we have in the geopolitical context right now, we need to join forces as trusted partners.”

When opening the meeting, South African President Cyril Ramaphosa stated External link, opens in new window.: “Just as cooperation supported the progress of early humans, our modern-day challenges can only be resolved through collaboration, partnership and solidarity. That is why South Africa has placed solidarity, equality and sustainability at the centre of our G20 Presidency … As the G20, it is critical that the principles of the UN Charter, multilateralism and international law remain at the centre of all our endeavours.”

From the sidelines, French foreign minister Jean-Noël Barrot took a swipe at the Trump government in an opinion piece External link, opens in new window.: “The real line of division is the one that separates those that support the international rules-based order from the rest. The discussion we should be having, at G20 meetings and everywhere else, is not the clash between north and south, but between those that support the law and those that support power by force.”

Addressing a meeting of the G20 finance ministers on 26 February, which US state secretary Scott Bessent boycotted External link, opens in new window., Ramaphosa reiterated External link, opens in new window.: “The pursuit of equality is an imperative for wealthy and poor countries alike. That is why South Africa has placed solidarity, equality and sustainability at the centre of its G20 Presidency.”

Given new uncertainties, as an African middle power, more than ever South Africa has to navigate between changing coalitions and relations. BRICS+ could then emerge as a suitable home base. It is largely shaped by China’s orientation External link, opens in new window., which points not towards confrontation but rather multilateralism and free trade.

BRICS+ accommodates members with rather differing ideologies and policies, and is also limited by regional dissonances and conflicts. It lacks the foundations for a consolidated power bloc on its own. External link, opens in new window. Its attraction is as a collecting pool for countries that prefer not to position themselves firmly on the side of one global actor or another. External link, opens in new window. Middle powers, emerging economies and others could follow the example of India and engage in changing coalitions and relations, facilitating ad hoc alliances.

According to Anne-Marie Slaughter, Professor Emerita of Politics and International Affairs at Princeton University, such shopping around takes the form of a marketplace: External link, opens in new window. “Rather than a unipolar or multipolar system, this world resembles nothing less – and nothing more – than a bazaar.”

To complicate matters further, the future of the UN is another contentious issue. Dorothy Shea, the interim US permanent representative to the UN, declared in a UN Security Council debate on 18 February External link, opens in new window.: “The United States is currently conducting a review of our support to the UN. We will consider whether the actions of the organization are serving American interests, and whether it can be reformed.”

The answer promptly followed. Alongside Malaysia’s Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim, Colombia’s President Gustavo Petro and Varsha Gandikota-Nellutia as acting chair of the newly founded Hague Group External link, opens in new window., Ramaphosa published an article in Foreign Policy External link, opens in new window. on 25 February. It ends with a general appeal: “The international system cannot endure if it is undermined by those who wield vetoes and sanctions to shield allies from scrutiny or use aid and trade as tools of coercion. The threat of punishment is intended to force countries to retreat to a language of pleas. We cannot remain passive and be forced to publish ‘calls’ and ‘demands’ while the principles of justice that underpin our international order are destroyed. We believe in protagonism, not supplication. The choice is stark: Either we act together to enforce international law or we risk its collapse.”

Since then, Elon Musk has publicly supported an initiative by Republican Senator Mike Lee to withdraw from the UN External link, opens in new window. as “a platform for tyrants and a venue to attack America and her allies.” This would demolish an essential part of predominantly Western global security architecture and redesign international relations, at a time when African demands for a meaningful role in the Security Council are finally being taken more seriously. As Ramaphosa stressed in a parliamentary debate External link, opens in new window. on 17 October 2024: “South Africa will remain an ardent voice for the urgent reform of the UN Security Council and the need to correct the historical injustices committed against the continent.”

A vote on two resolutions in the UN General Assembly External link, opens in new window. on the third anniversary of the full-scale Russian invasion of Ukraine might be an indicator of the changing situation : the Ukraine draft was adopted with South Africa abstaining and the US as one of 18 countries (including Russia, Belarus, Israel and North Korea) voting against its adoption. South Africa supported the initial US draft resolution, adopted in its amended version, while the US abstained. Anyone predicting this a year ago would have risked being declared mentally confused.

The Make America Great Again agenda draws new dividing lines. “The West” could even regroup into an isolationist US with some vassal states and a more consolidated, separate Western alliance. The “global South”, as fictitious as the “global North”, could align with one of the four centres of global power based in Beijing, Brussels, Moscow and Washington, or seek closer affiliation with the BRICS+ states to navigate between the different sides. The G20 Summit in November could see a reshuffling of the deck. The question remains, who will be left holding the jokers and how will South Africa play its hand?