WP 1 aims to estimate the population migration from cyclones using multi-sensor satellite imagery across Madagascar.

Outcomes

1.      High-accuracy, nationally-representative annual data on cyclone-driven bilateral regional migratory flows 

2.      Ground-truthed assessment of migration pathways associated with satellite-derived cyclone events in communities within the primary data sampling frame. 

Products

1.      Results-oriented scientific paper that quantifies nationally representative migration patterns from historical cyclonic events and projects migration from future events driven by climate change.

2.      Methods-oriented remote sensing paper on opportunities for mapping climate migration using satellite data

WP 2 aims to develop a high-resolution mapping of the compound flooding hazard across the coastal region of Madagascar, considering jointly the pluvial floods and the oceanic surge associated with any tropical cyclone.

Outcomes

1.      Cross-scale hydrodynamic model of Madagascar island, capturing the compound flooding factors (extreme rainfall events, cyclone surges and associated near-shore flooding). 

2.      Projections of the changing frequency of societal-relevant climate hazards including recent and future changes in drought hazard, extreme rainfall and compound events. 

Products

1.      Comprehensive, consolidated digital topo-bathymetric atlas of Madagascar island and coastal region. 

2.      High-resolution mapping of the flooding hazard over Madagascar island, at various return periods ranging from a few years to several decades, both under current climate conditions and under 21st century climate change scenarios. 

3.      Paper that describes this mapping hazard. 

4.      Detailed metrics describing societally relevant climate hazards over Madagascar. 

5.      Future projections of changing risk of climate hazards over Madagascar, including changing risk of extreme rainfall and prolonged hot and dry periods. 

6.      Paper that describes development of societally relevant climate hazard metrics and future projections of such metrics. 

WP 3 aims to understand the migration drivers in multi-hazard environment using primary data, while considering intersectionality. It seeks to quantify the relationship between migration and climate extremes, utilizing both objective and subjective measures of exposure.

Outcomes

1.      Longitudinal dataset available in Madagascar measuring household food security, exposure to shocks, and trends on land practices.

2.      Longitudinal dataset available in Madagascar measuring individual migration, education, marriage market conditions, employment, and income.

3.      Longitudinal dataset available in Madagascar measuring community prices and cost of living 

Products

1.      Paper that measures the effect of multiple hazards on different patterns of migration in Madagascar using primary data, and data products created by the team in WP#1 and WP#2.

2.      Paper that focuses on mechanisms underlying climate migration for women and youth, drawing on evidence from auxiliary outcomes collected in the longitudinal survey and from satellite sources (marriage outcomes, bride price, employment, vegetation, land productivity).

3.      Results-oriented social-ecological systems (SES) paper describing social, economic, and institutional implications from landscape transformation driven by climate migration

WP4 aims to utilize the MIDAS (Migration, Intensification, and Diversification as Adaptive Strategies) ABM framework to develop a ‘policy laboratory’ for examining response to environmental stressors in Madagascar.

Outcomes

1.      A coupled livelihoods - landscape processes ABM application, parameterized from our data gathering activities cross-validated to conditions in Madagascar, to understand household adaptation to environmental and socioeconomic shocks, applied to experiments evaluating interventions to manage inequity and the viability of rural livelihoods.

Products

1.      One or more scientific articles describing model application and comparative evaluation of governance interventions. 

2.      One scientific article extending the theory of ‘pathway diversity’ to rural mobility context in Madagascar via ABM.